Business of Tech: Daily 10-Minute IT Services Insights AI Spending Impact, Channel Share Decline, and MSP Growth Strategies With Jay McBain
The central development addressed is the disconnect between rising overall IT spending and the declining channel share for MSPs and IT partners. Dave Sobel, in discussion with an industry analyst, highlights a reduction in indirect channel participation—from over 75% to a projected 66.7% in 2026—primarily due to the concentration of AI infrastructure investment among the largest technology firms. These hyperscalers and their associated CapEx do not translate into traditional channel opportunities, restricting partner involvement to areas outside large-scale AI data center buildouts.
Supporting data point to a technological industry projected to reach $6.07 trillion in customer spend, growing at 10.2%, compared to significantly lower world GDP growth. However, almost none of the rapid AI-related CapEx from companies like Nvidia and Google flows down to channel partners, who instead rely on client-facing managed services, advisory, and security service work. The increasing complexity of customer demand—such as the shift toward managed security (15% growth) and AI services (35.3% compounded growth)—further pushes MSPs to focus on services surrounding the core product, rather than on direct product resale or thin margin opportunities.
A significant operational shift within the channel also emerges: the distinction between “influence” and “execution” partners. Vendor programs increasingly recognize partner contributions outside of transactional resale, such as co-selling, advisory contributions, and services attached before or after the point of sale. This trend is reinforced as platforms move toward “point systems” and indirect revenue attribution, redefining how MSPs measure channel health and partner value in a more complex, multi-partner environment.
For MSPs, IT providers, and decision-makers, the key operational implications are clear. Traditional growth through seat expansion is less reliable as hiring softens, and managed services must focus on multiplier opportunities—profitable service revenue attached to each dollar of product sold. Capturing value requires adapting to changing program structures, emphasizing trusted advisor roles, and collaborating effectively with adjacent partners. Near-term investment in understanding and building pre-sales AI and security services, and tracking evolving vendor economics, is essential for navigating the new realities of partner participation, risk allocation, and long-term business health.
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