90. Dr David Kilcullen - Decoding Geopolitics and the emerging Multipolar World

My guest today is Dr David Kilcullen, who is a renowned military strategist, scholar, and former soldier and diplomat who has served both the Australian and United States governments for three decades now. He is an expert in the fields of guerrilla warfare, terrorism, urbanisation, and the future of conflict.    David has authored several influential books, including ‘The Accidental Guerrilla’, ‘Counterinsurgency’, ‘Out of the Mountains’, ‘The Dragons and Snakes: How the Rest Leant to Fight the West’ and ‘The Ledger: Accounting for Failure in Afghanistan’. He has been named one of Foreign Policy's Top 100 Global Thinkers and has won numerous awards for his writing. His work is widely used by policymakers, the military, intelligence services, and development agencies around the world.    Some of the topics we discussed are: ·      David’s background, military life, and journey into academia ·      Analysis of the fall of Kabul and the current situation in Afghanistan ·      Reflection on the power and influence of elites in the US and how their pursuit of selfish interests affects geopolitics ·      Competing partisan narratives in the US and their impact on global politics ·      Lack of accountability for the failures in Afghanistan and Iraq and its impact ·      Working towards preventing a potential war between the US and China as a national priority for Australia ·      Discussion on the likelihood and impact of a hot war between the US and China ·      Analysis of what the US-China contest is actually about ·      A discussion on the winners and losers in the 20th century ·      Reflection on Iraq as a pivotal moment for US global dominance ·      Loss of Western moral legitimacy and its impact ·      Australia’s position in a potential US-China conflict ·      Reflection on the recently announced Australian Defence Strategic Review ·      How Taiwan perceives China and how this shapes its strategic narrative ·      Reflection on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, its origins, and potential outcomes ·      China’s attempt to mediate between Ukraine and Russia, as well as Iran and Saudi Arabia ·      How social media undermines conflict discourse and stifles dialogue due to parallel realities ·      The importance of national sovereignty, industry, resilience, and sustainability ·      Discussion on the fact that increased sovereignty would impact the current standard of living and national wealth ·      Impact of the collapse of confidence in experts, institutions, and the political elite in the West ·      Reflection on the ongoing domestic tensions in the US and the risks associated with the 2024 presidential election ·      Dave's two key risks for the immediate future—ongoing erosion of civil liberties in the West and a weaponised pandemic