Columbia Energy Exchange Iran Conflict Brief: Ali Ansari on What's Going on Inside Iran
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Apr 6, 2026 
Ali Ansari, professor of Iranian history and founder of the Institute for Iranian Studies, offers on-the-ground perspective. He discusses fractured decision-making after Khamenei's death and the IRGC's rise as military and corporate power. Conversation covers the IRGC's decentralized 'mosaic defense', risks of infrastructure strikes, and Iran's short-term leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
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Fragmented Iranian Decision Making After Khamenei
- Decision-making in Iran has become fragmented after Khamenei's death, increasing IRGC dominance but reducing centralized authority.
- The IRGC leads during wartime yet coordination falters due to paranoia and decapitated senior officials, per Ali Ansari.
Mosaic Defense Weakens Coordination
- Iran's 'mosaic defense' devolves operational command to local commanders, increasing responsiveness but degrading coordination.
- Result: scattered missile strikes and unclear waves of attacks with poor ability to implement or communicate ceasefires, per Ali Ansari.
Sanctions Relief Needs To Be Substantial And Quick
- Any credible deal to end hostilities must deliver substantial, timely financial relief, not small unblocking of funds.
- Ali Ansari warns sanctions unwinding is complex and slow, so cash injections are politically vital for regime survival.