Episode 003: Good & bad government interventions

This week Mark and I discuss how “we’re all state capitalists now” but that both new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi and US President Trump make an error when they try to include central banks in that effort. We discuss what markets are missing — inflation — and how that’s likely to be a key risk theme for 2026, and we touch upon whether the current equity boom is Dot.com 2.0, or something different.

0:07 The message of new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi and what it means for Japan and the yen.

6:23 We’re all state capitalists now, but where do governments need to draw the line.

12:43 Can we run economies hotter? And what did we learn from Stephen Miran?

15:57 Does President Trump want a housing refi cycle or does he just have a time-inconsistency problem?

23:18 Will we see a pivot from President Trump early next year? What form will it take?

27:33 President Trump is delivering the relative price changes his voters want.

33:31 Current central banking philosophy may be a bigger problem than fiscal authorities’ interference.

36:07 Why are central banks getting the labor market so wrong?

49:08 How much of a constraint is slowing labor supply growth on the economy?

52:09 Why aren’t markets more worried about central banks’ continuing mismanagement and pricing more inflation? Is inflation the risk theme for 2026?

59:53 Are markets’ fears about equity valuations valid? Are the comparisons to the Dot.com bubble valid?

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