In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with PSG Managing Director Chris Nesbitt to unpack how great deals are actually found, how investment decisions are really made, and why narrative often matters more than most investors admit. They also dig into forecasting, boardroom authenticity, simple vs. complex models, and the roles of market, product, and leadership in driving outcomes.
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LINKS:
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
Guest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/christophersnesbitt/
Company: https://psgequity.com/
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Preview and intro
2:44 PSG origin story
4:01 Growth to 30B AUM
5:07 Strategy: small software at scale
5:50 Vertical SaaS treasure hunting
8:10 Ministry Brands: software meets payments
9:28 Sponsors — Brex | Aleph | RightRev
12:46 Early M&A work and rollup strategy
15:52 Sourcing is more competitive now
18:28 Smoke signals and relationship sourcing
21:22 Does brand get you in the room?
22:15 Authenticity as a sourcing edge
22:52 Sponsors — Rillet | EY | SpendHound
26:09 Brand name of investor or deal partner?
27:44 Investors are narrative driven animals
29:18 Market, product, then execution
31:26 Danger of falling in love with the narrative
33:40 Operator AI pivot story: GRC company
34:51 Keep it simple: one tab, five key inputs
39:21 Forecasting confidence beyond 12-18 months
41:51 What makes a useful board meeting
45:01 Build vs. buy: the payments decision
47:45 ARR vs. EBITDA multiples
50:30 Lightning round
50:34 Board materials: send 3 days in advance
51:03 LTV to CAC and cap software debates
51:32 First deal at PSG
52:35 What young investors get wrong
54:04 Credits
Run the Numbers 