The Daily Signal ‘Truflation': Trump’s Actual Inflation Rate | E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.
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Feb 6, 2026 A discussion comparing real-time price tracking with official inflation measures. They examine why a minute-by-minute aggregator reports far lower inflation than the CPI. Housing measurement, timing and weighting differences are highlighted. The conversation looks at how these gaps could affect interest rates and policy decisions.
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Real-Time Index Shows Much Lower Inflation
- Truflation reports a 12-month inflation rate near 0.9%, about one-third of the official CPI reading.
- Truflation tracks millions of prices daily, giving it more granular, real-time coverage than the BLS.
Truflation Normally Tracks CPI Closely
- Truflation usually correlates 97% with CPI, so big divergences are notable and worth investigating.
- Truflation was higher than CPI during the peak inflation under Biden, showing it can swing both ways.
Prices Versus Inflation Clarified
- Distinguish prices from inflation: inflation measures the speed of price increases, not price levels.
- Deflation requires prices to fall, which is different from slower inflation or price stabilization.