The Nonlinear Library EA - Taiwan's military complacency. by JKitson
Dec 5, 2023
18:00
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Taiwan's military complacency., published by JKitson on December 5, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum.
Taiwan's current military strategy puts it at risk from a resurgent China.
Taiwan's leaders seem to underrate the risk of military conflict. I was told this post would be of interest to members of the EA forum, so I am reposting it from my substack.
Why won't Taiwan change course?
Taiwan faces the threat of major conflict from the People's Republic of China. China's economic rise has funded an expansion in its military capabilities, which are now quantitatively and in many cases, qualitatively superior to its opponents. On the face of it, despite a transformation in China's forces, Taiwan has not drastically adapted its military strategy and seemingly expects to fight a war with a limited number of its high-value sea, air, and land units, which cannot be quickly replaced.
In a full-blown conflict, these will likely be overwhelmed and destroyed in weeks, if not days. Taiwan has not yet adapted to the circumstances due to a mixture of institutional inertia and questionable political calculation. It remains to be seen if Taiwan's current position can continue to deter a conflict or prevail if it occurs.
Adapting to a transformation in military circumstances is a significant challenge for any military, but Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence (MND) has thus far not been willing or able to do it. While China was still a poor country and its armed forces were far inferior to Taiwan's, the basic plan to defend the island from invasion was to meet the large invasion force and defeat it. Both
during and
after the Cold War, the US provided Taiwan with a host of equipment, including jets, destroyers, tanks, artillery, and air defense systems.
Although Taiwan and China did fight various
skirmishes throughout the Cold War, these never massively escalated in large part due to US intervention. During some periods of Chinese internal strife, the threat of conflict was far lower, but in periods of relative stability, there was a non-zero risk of invasion. If China decided to invade, Taiwan's US (and later, indigenously built) jets would first establish air superiority
over the straits. The Taiwanese navy would then attack the invasion force of Chinese Navy ships and ramshackle troop transports, which would be nearly helpless as Taiwanese jets screamed overhead. Given the often shambolic state of the Chinese military and the fact that the US would be free to join in with its own even more superior forces, it is obvious why the Chinese military never attempted this invasion.
The Chinese Threat
Today, the story is somewhat different. China has developed a modern air, land, and naval force. China officially spends $227.79 billion (1.55 trillion yuan) on its military, but due to purchasing power parity, this is
equivalent to $700 billion. The PLAAF has 2,500 aircraft, including about 2,000 fighter jets, and has taken delivery of hundreds of Chengdu J-20 fighters, one of only four examples worldwide of a 5th generation fighter. 5th generation jets offer greater stealth, maneuverability, range, and information processing capabilities compared to 4th generation machines. The Chengdu J-20's capabilities against the US F-35 are uncertain, but they are more than a match for Taiwan's air force, which numbers around 250 fighters, with its most advanced models being outdated 4th generation F-16s, which date from 1992.
A Chengdu J-20 fighter.
Supporting this formidable air force is a
daunting layer of air defenses. Consisting of radars and ground-to-air and ship missiles, the PLA can conduct operations over the Taiwan Strait with a reasonable degree of safety, allowing the PLAAF to focus on supporting an invasion effort. China's air defense was initially built on Soviet platforms but now incl...
Taiwan's current military strategy puts it at risk from a resurgent China.
Taiwan's leaders seem to underrate the risk of military conflict. I was told this post would be of interest to members of the EA forum, so I am reposting it from my substack.
Why won't Taiwan change course?
Taiwan faces the threat of major conflict from the People's Republic of China. China's economic rise has funded an expansion in its military capabilities, which are now quantitatively and in many cases, qualitatively superior to its opponents. On the face of it, despite a transformation in China's forces, Taiwan has not drastically adapted its military strategy and seemingly expects to fight a war with a limited number of its high-value sea, air, and land units, which cannot be quickly replaced.
In a full-blown conflict, these will likely be overwhelmed and destroyed in weeks, if not days. Taiwan has not yet adapted to the circumstances due to a mixture of institutional inertia and questionable political calculation. It remains to be seen if Taiwan's current position can continue to deter a conflict or prevail if it occurs.
Adapting to a transformation in military circumstances is a significant challenge for any military, but Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence (MND) has thus far not been willing or able to do it. While China was still a poor country and its armed forces were far inferior to Taiwan's, the basic plan to defend the island from invasion was to meet the large invasion force and defeat it. Both
during and
after the Cold War, the US provided Taiwan with a host of equipment, including jets, destroyers, tanks, artillery, and air defense systems.
Although Taiwan and China did fight various
skirmishes throughout the Cold War, these never massively escalated in large part due to US intervention. During some periods of Chinese internal strife, the threat of conflict was far lower, but in periods of relative stability, there was a non-zero risk of invasion. If China decided to invade, Taiwan's US (and later, indigenously built) jets would first establish air superiority
over the straits. The Taiwanese navy would then attack the invasion force of Chinese Navy ships and ramshackle troop transports, which would be nearly helpless as Taiwanese jets screamed overhead. Given the often shambolic state of the Chinese military and the fact that the US would be free to join in with its own even more superior forces, it is obvious why the Chinese military never attempted this invasion.
The Chinese Threat
Today, the story is somewhat different. China has developed a modern air, land, and naval force. China officially spends $227.79 billion (1.55 trillion yuan) on its military, but due to purchasing power parity, this is
equivalent to $700 billion. The PLAAF has 2,500 aircraft, including about 2,000 fighter jets, and has taken delivery of hundreds of Chengdu J-20 fighters, one of only four examples worldwide of a 5th generation fighter. 5th generation jets offer greater stealth, maneuverability, range, and information processing capabilities compared to 4th generation machines. The Chengdu J-20's capabilities against the US F-35 are uncertain, but they are more than a match for Taiwan's air force, which numbers around 250 fighters, with its most advanced models being outdated 4th generation F-16s, which date from 1992.
A Chengdu J-20 fighter.
Supporting this formidable air force is a
daunting layer of air defenses. Consisting of radars and ground-to-air and ship missiles, the PLA can conduct operations over the Taiwan Strait with a reasonable degree of safety, allowing the PLAAF to focus on supporting an invasion effort. China's air defense was initially built on Soviet platforms but now incl...