Ones and Tooze What a War With Iran Might Look Like
85 snips
Feb 27, 2026 A deep conversation about what a U.S. war with Iran might actually look like, from missile math and interceptor shortfalls to risks of mining the Strait of Hormuz. They walk through military options, retaliation scenarios, and how intelligence blind spots shape decisions. The discussion also covers naval vulnerabilities and how China and Russia might respond.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Missile Math Is The Central Military Risk
- Military planners warn that "missile math" uncertainty (missile counts, launcher locations, interceptor stocks) is a key risk in any strike on Iran.
- Petraeus cites interceptor depletion from recent conflicts and estimates ~5% of Iranian missiles previously penetrated defenses, creating potential catastrophic risk if one hits a base or barracks.
Near-Disaster Chinook Landing Shows Luck Matters
- Petraeus recounts a risky Maduro-era special operation where lead pilot and aircraft were hit multiple times but the crew miraculously recovered the Chinook.
- He compares that near-disaster to past catastrophic incidents like the 2011 Chinook shootdown to show how luck matters in ops.
Degrade Retaliatory Capabilities First
- If the U.S. strikes Iran and wants to limit retaliation, target the capabilities that enable Iranian counterstrikes (missiles, launchers, drone bases, mine-laying boats).
- Petraeus stresses going after assets that can retaliate, because degrading those reduces catastrophic potential even if regime change is unlikely.