The Cognitive Bias Podcast How to Make Better Decisions
Dec 31, 2019
A tour of practical ways to reduce cognitive bias in decisions. Topics include System 1 vs System 2 thinking and how checklists and peer review improved surgical outcomes. Learn about choice architecture, reference class forecasting, premortems and red teams. The episode also explores mindfulness, sleep, incentives, and games as tools to improve judgment.
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Surgical Checklist Cut Infections To Zero
- David Dillon-Thomas recounts surgical checklists reducing infection rates from 11% to 0% after nurses were empowered to verify steps.
- The checklist forced clinicians into slower System 2 thinking and a second pair of eyes caught skipped steps that experts missed.
Default Framing Shapes Organ Donation Rates
- Framing defaults strongly shape behavior, as shown by organ donor opt-in versus opt-out settings.
- Making donation the default leverages inertia to increase donor rates without changing beliefs.
Use Reference Class Forecasting For Estimates
- Use reference class forecasting: pick comparable past cases, build a probability distribution, and compare to your plan.
- This outside view beats expert inside estimates illustrated by Edinburgh tram costs ballooning above projections.