The Wolf Of All Streets The Real Reason Bitcoin Topped Early & What Comes Next | Lyn Alden
22 snips
Feb 28, 2026 
Lyn Alden, macro investor and research analyst known for macro and Bitcoin research, explains why this cycle felt muted and why halvings matter less than liquidity. She discusses OG holders’ behavior, Bitcoin’s odd correlation with software stocks, weak retail demand, and stablecoins quietly reshaping adoption. Short-term consolidation or structural change — she maps what could bring capital back.
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Halving Is No Longer The Primary Bitcoin Catalyst
- The four-year halving cadence is no longer a reliable fundamental catalyst for Bitcoin's cycles.
- Mining issuance is a much smaller share now, so halvings matter less and liquidity/psychology drive price more.
Seller Exhaustion Triggers The Next Bull Run
- The true catalyst for a new bull phase is exhausting long-term seller supply, not the halving itself.
- Once long-term holders stop selling and a small positive move occurs, narratives and momentum can rapidly flip price direction.
OG Selling Narrative Is A Statistical Illusion
- Apparent OG selling is overstated because the pool of long-term holders has grown with Bitcoin's age.
- A record number of coins haven't moved in five years, so large-sample statistics skew perceptions of 'OG' exits.