ABC News Daily Why Iran thinks it’s winning the war
Mar 24, 2026
Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and Middle East security analyst, breaks down Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz and its leverage over global oil. He outlines Iran’s remaining naval, missile, drone and asymmetric capabilities. He explains why Iran seeks to end fighting on its own terms and what that means for regional escalation.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Trump Uses Deadlines To Buy Time
- Donald Trump issued a 48-hour threat then extended it to five days to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Jonathan Panikoff says the extension likely buys time because striking plants risk escalating attacks on desalination and energy infrastructure.
Talks Are Possible But Not Advanced
- Reports of talks are mixed: Pakistan and Turkey may mediate while the US could send Vice President Pence and Iran might send hardliner Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
- Jonathan Panikoff warns talks may occur but not produce an immediate resolution.
Control Of Hormuz Gives Iran Strategic Leverage
- Iran's leverage comes from its ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz and roil oil markets, pressuring the US to act cautiously.
- Panikoff says even strong military strikes may not remove Iran's regional influence or leverage.