Does Xi really have control of China's economy?

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the world's second-largest economy is having trouble convincing anyone it is under control.

This coming week it will be all about the US Fed rate decisions, and the size of the rate cut. We will get that on Thursday NZT. And there will be central bank rate decisions this week from Japan, Norway, China, the UK, and Turkey. Australia will release its labour market updates. And of course, the New Zealand Q2 GDP result will also come Thursday.

But over the weekend it was mostly about China.

China’s industrial production rose by +4.5% in August from a year ago, falling short of market forecasts and slowing from July. This was the softest growth since March, and the fourth straight month of a slowdown. But at least it was confirmed by their electricity production data, up +5.8%. It is rare that electricity use exceeds industrial production expansion, so perhaps that is an encouraging signal for them.

But China's retail sales underperformed, rising just +2.1% from a year ago in August, moderating from +2.7% growth in the prior month and missing market consensus of +2.5%. Lower car sales kept a lid on this sector amid unusual weather events this summer.

New home prices in 70 cities fell faster, down -5.3%in August, after a -4.9% fall in the previous month. It was the 14th straight month of decrease and the steepest pace since May 2015, despite Beijing's extensive measures to reverse a downturn in the property sector, such as trimming mortgage rates and reducing home buying costs.

Every one of those cities recorded a fall in these official stats for used houses. The largest was the -13% fall in Wuhan. When resales lose money it will be very hard to sell new ones.

So it will be no surprise that their August data shows new loan growth remains very subdued in what is extending to be unusual difficult trading conditions. Chinese banks extended +¥900 bln in new yuan loans in August, above a fifteen-year low of ¥260 bln in July, but less than the expected bounce-back. It is also the lowest value for an August month since 2015.

And it won't be a surprise to that August FDI was particularly weak, down more than -48% in the year to August from the same period in 2023.

We have noted the trend before, but the weak Chinese economy is driving a bond rally there. Yields fell to a new record low on Thursday, and state banks have been drafted in to sell some of their long-dated bonds to try and stem the rally. But until more confidence returns to the Chinese economy generally, it unlikely to work. If Beijing institutions don't have the firepower to move this market, it is unlikely the core SOE banks do either.

In a rare statement with the loan growth data release, the central bank indicated that new stimulus is on the way to shore up the economy. Late last week, President Xi exhorted his government to ensure the 5% growth target is reached this year. Xi's intervention came after widespread voices warned that the 5% target was probably out of reach.

Coming at a time that isn't convenient for their economy, China is going into an end-of-summer period of public holidays. First there is the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival, September 15 to 17, a total of 3 days off - but where Saturday, September 14 has been declared a workday. That will be followed by the seven-day "National Day" holiday from October 1 to 7. But that is being offset by making it full workdays on September 29 (Sunday) and October 12 (Saturday). One consequence of all this time off is that foreign travel is expected to boom. Visa-free policies and lower air fares is seeing the number of Chinese booking holidays abroad surge.

In India, officials there are chaffing over creditor moves in the US to put Byjus into bankruptcy. Indian officials have arbitrarily removed the creditors who petitioned the US court that ruled on bankruptcy, from the creditor processes in India. It might get quite messy.

In Europe, July industrial production (real) was flat from June in the EU, but lower in the wider Euro Area. From a year ago the declines are -2.2% and -1.7% respectively.

In Russia, their central bank increased its policy rate by +100 bps to 19% in a move markets did not expect. They are battling high inflation in a war economy that is distorting faster than their central bank is comfortable with.

And in the US, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey increased for a 2nd month in September, to its highest level since May. This was above what was expected. Both current conditions and expectations improved, topping estimates. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the year-ahead declined to 2.7% but those for the next five years rose marginally to 3.1%.

You will recall that the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate two weeks ago, by -25 bps to 4.25%. But now the talk there is of much bigger cuts at their next meeting on October 24 (NZT). Maybe -50 bps, or more.

And in Australia, the trend well established here is showing up there. Sharply more listings, lower auction clearance rates, and falling prices. Now observers are saying it has turned into a buyer’s market, especially in the eastern States.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.66% and unchanged from Saturday. 

The price of gold will start today at US$2578/oz and down -US$4 from its Saturday new all-time high.

Oil prices aresofter by -50 USc at US$68.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$71.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 61.6 USc and unchanged from Saturday. Against the Aussie we have dipped slightly to 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.3, and unchanged from Saturday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,791 and virtually unchanged from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.7%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.