GD POLITICS Trump’s Iran Gamble Gets More Expensive
Mar 9, 2026
Gabe Fleisher, author of the Wake Up To Politics newsletter and political commentator, breaks down rising casualties, global market shocks and oil surges tied to the Iran war. He connects energy pain to voter behavior, dissects congressional war-powers fights and GOP divisions, and weighs how the conflict could shape presidential politics and future funding battles.
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Foreign Policy Rarely Boosts Approval Nowadays
- Modern presidential approval ratings are unusually sticky; foreign policy rarely delivers lasting boosts.
- Since 9/11 only short-lived upticks emerged (e.g., Osama bin Laden strike); wars more often risk hurting approval than helping it.
Starting An Unpopular War Is Unprecedented Today
- Historically, U.S. wars begin with majority public support; starting an unpopular war is unprecedented in the modern polling era.
- New York Times and other analyses find no modern example where war began without majority backing.
Trump Chose Low Visibility Over A Wartime Sell
- Trump largely avoided traditional wartime massaging of public opinion, preferring phone interviews and normal public events instead of Oval Office appeals.
- His apparent strategy: keep the war low-salience, hope a quick victory obviates selling it.