The Markets

Untangling Signals of Market Stress

52 snips
Mar 13, 2026
John Flood, Head of Americas Equities Execution Services at Goldman Sachs, brings frontline trading-floor perspective. He discusses geopolitical uncertainty driving macro hedges. He highlights record share volumes amid thin S&P futures liquidity. He explains why ETF trading above 40% signals stress and unpacks crowded trades in Asia, semiconductors, and momentum.
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INSIGHT

Institutions Keep Longs But Flood The Market With Hedges

  • Institutional investors are hedging heavily despite keeping core single-stock longs due to macro and geopolitical uncertainty.
  • Hedge funds are shorting macro products like futures, ETFs, and custom baskets to preserve alpha while protecting against headline risk.
INSIGHT

Record Volume Masks A Sharp Liquidity Drop

  • Market volumes are at record highs while liquidity is deteriorating, creating larger price impact for sizable institutional trades.
  • Goldman Sachs measures S&P top-of-book depth, which fell from a $14–15M historical average to about $3.8M on the day discussed.
INSIGHT

Rising ETF Share Signals Market Stress

  • ETFs now represent an outsized share of trading as institutions use them to hedge macro risk, signaling stress when ETF share rises above normal.
  • ETF share of tape moved north of 40% versus a healthy 30–32%, amplifying signals of market stress.
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