Bloomberg Talks Dr. Adam Posen Talks CPI, Global Economic Outlook
Feb 13, 2026
Dr. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute and global macro expert, offers a brisk look at inflation and the world economy. He discusses why small CPI misses matter less, how fiscal stimulus could raise inflation risks, and scenarios that might push inflation above 4% by 2026. He also weighs Fed reactions, demographic shifts, and AI’s uncertain labor effects.
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Ignore Small CPI Misses
- Monthly CPI wiggles under 0.2% are not meaningful noise and don't change the broader trend.
- Adam Posen argues listeners should focus on bigger stories like labor retention and fiscal moves rather than tiny misses.
Multiple Forces Could Push Inflation Higher
- Posen warns that likely fiscal stimulus, tariffs, anti-migration policies, and a solid labor market could lift inflation materially.
- He and Peter Orszag estimate those forces could push inflation well above 2%, possibly toward 4% by 2026 if cumulative effects occur.
Fed Might Be Behind The Curve
- Posen cautions the Fed may be slower to tighten if new leadership favors looser policy despite data.
- That slowness could become self-fulfilling and leave the Fed behind the curve if inflation re-accelerates.