FEAR & GREED | Business News Q+A: The Week Ahead | 30 Mar 2026
Mar 29, 2026
Stephen Koukoulas, economist and commentator known as 'The Kook', offers macroeconomic analysis in a brisk weekly preview. He unpacks the RBA's 5-4 split on rates. He explains how the worsening oil-price shock hits households and supply chains. He reviews building approvals, house-price trends and job vacancies for the week ahead.
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RBA Split Reveals Real Concern Over Oil Shock
- The RBA board split 5–4 on the recent rate hike, revealing real disagreement about policy amid new shocks.
- Four members opposed the hike partly because they feared the contractionary impact of a sudden oil/petrol price shock on household spending.
Petrol Prices Work As A Broad Economic Handbrake
- Petrol price rises act like a blunt macroeconomic handbrake because they touch a much larger share of households than mortgage rate changes.
- High petrol costs hit consumption, logistics, air travel and food transport, quickly lowering consumer spending and confidence.
Fuel Pain Hits More People Than Mortgage Pain
- Petrol shocks reach a much wider population than mortgage rate rises because only about a third of households have mortgages.
- That broader impact helps explain the steep fall in consumer sentiment measured by ANZ Roy Morgan.