Rational Security: The “Tavern Style” Edition

Apr 30, 2026

Guest

Joel Braunold

Joel Braunold, analyst on Lebanon, Hezbollah, and NATO dynamics. Ari Tabatabai, expert on Iran and regional strategy. Natalie Orpett, national security editor providing editorial perspective. They discuss the Iran war’s trajectories and Strait of Hormuz leverage. They cover Lebanon ceasefire strains and Hezbollah’s role. They debate NATO tensions, U.S. alliance coercion, and rising risks of political violence at home.

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INSIGHT

Closure Of The Strait Is A Refined Iranian Lever

Iran demonstrated tailored, repeatable maritime leverage by weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz rather than an all-out closure.
Ari predicts Iran will refine maritime tactics and invest in organic capabilities like missiles and naval measures.

INSIGHT

Coercion Is Recasting NATO Alliance Management

The administration uses coercion as an alliance management tool, stressing NATO tensions and risking alliance effectiveness.
Ari notes coercion toward allies (Greenland, Hungary, Spain) undermines trust and could degrade NATO's operational cohesion.

INSIGHT

NATO Is Likely To Become Less Effective Not Immediately Break Up

A likely outcome is a less effective NATO rather than outright collapse, with long-term shifts in force posture and U.S. troop presence.
Joel Braunold and Natalie Orpett foresee withdrawals, reallocation to other regions, and durable transatlantic friction.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Executive Editor Natalie Orpett and Contributing Editors Ariane Tabatabai and Joel Braunold, to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:

“The Art of the Heel.” As it approaches the 60-day mark, the war of Iran appears to have entered the “war of attrition” stage. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed by both Iran and the United States, as each side waits to see if the other will capitulate first. President Trump recently called off peace talks in Islamabad, in part because of purported internal disarray on the part of Iran—a perhaps unsurprising consequence of a two-month campaign of regime change. Meanwhile, the White House appears to have successfully pushed for and and then extended a ceasefire in the related theater of Lebanon, but it is already under strain from ongoing Israeli strikes and Hezbollah’s ensuing refusal to disarm. What should we make of this new equilibrium? And does it suggest that there is any way out of the current morass in the near future?
“Royally Falked.” King Charles is in the United States this week for the first state visit by a British monarch since Queen Elizabeth in 2007. But the Trump administration’s latest round of antics toward the United Kingdom and other NATO allies may overshadow the trip. Over the weekend, Reuters reported that an internal Pentagon email suggested that the administration should explore withdrawing U.S. recognition of British control over the Falkland Islands and suspending Spain from NATO due to their refusal to join U.S.-Israeli combat operations against Iran. Other consequences may yet be in the offing. How seriously should we take these threats from the Pentagon? And how close are we to a permanent rupture in the United States’s preeminent alliance?
“Ballroom Blitz.” On Saturday night, President Trump was the target of a third assassination attempt since the 2024 campaign. This time, a California teacher plotted to target Trump and his senior advisers at the annual White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. In response, the administration quickly blamed Democrats for the heated, sometimes violent rhetoric they use in criticizing Trump and focused its attention on pressuring a federal court to end a civil case challenging the construction of the new White House ballroom, citing security concerns. What were some of our thoughts about this past weekend’s events?

In object lessons, Ari is taking control of the narrative with Split Fiction for the Switch 2. Natalie is taking herself out for a treat to Boulangerie Saint Georges near Eastern Market. Scott is taking a break from his own podcast to appreciate Iran: The Latest from The Telegraph. And Joel is taking a lesson from the NFL draft that may delight both sportsball and non-sportsball fans alike.

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