Reuters Morning Bid $100 today, $200 tomorrow?
Mar 12, 2026
Oil spikes past $100 as Gulf shipping attacks intensify. Tehran warns it could push crude to $200, reshaping risk calculations. Markets wrestle with why a massive reserve release barely eased pressure. Shipping, insurance and futures pricing shift as traders price longer-term tightness and higher inflation risks.
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Strategic Release Signals Extended Supply Risk
- The 400 million barrel strategic release signalled markets expect a multi-week disruption rather than a short shock.
- Mike Dolan notes US release paced over 120 days leaves a tight market if Gulf supply stays constrained for two to four weeks.
Recent Attacks Pushed Brent Briefly Above $100
- Overnight attacks hit at least three ships, briefly pushing Brent above $100.
- Mike Dolan describes crude topping $100 then slipping back to around $95 as U.S. markets opened.
US Release Pace Limits Short-Term Relief
- The US portion of the release is large but spread thinly over months, reducing immediate relief.
- Mike Dolan highlights ~170–180 million barrels from the US released across 120 days versus global demand near 15 million barrels per day.