Ed Yardeni: I Just Raised My Recession Odds

9 snips

Mar 18, 2026

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research and macro strategist, explains why he raised his recession odds to 35% while still betting on a roaring 2020s. He talks about whether inflation is structural, productivity’s role in disinflation, layered risks from oil and AI, why big tech looks cheaper, and his bold calls for gold and the S&P 500 by decade’s end.

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INSIGHT

1970s Stagflation Lookalike With Crucial Differences

Inflation risks feel like the 1970s twin peaks but key differences matter.
Productivity is rising now while the 1970s saw collapsing productivity, and the U.S. is an oil exporter today.

ADVICE

Quantify Scenarios With Subjective Probabilities

Use subjective probabilities for scenario planning and update them as risks change.
Ed raised his odds of 'things going wrong' from 20% to 35% while keeping a 60% base case for the Roaring 2020s.

INSIGHT

Productivity Drives Broad Earnings Resilience

Earnings resilience is concentrated in information technology and communication services but is broadening.
Productivity, not just AI, plus tighter cost management explains rising analyst earnings estimates despite energy worries.

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💡Ed sees increasing risks but says corrections are buying opportunities, not reasons to panic. Want a second opinion? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/4rJ4tqx

Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, joins Maggie Lake to assess whether the current inflation spike is structural or a passing shock. Ed has raised his recession odds from 20% to 35%, but still gives 60% to his roaring 2020s thesis, crediting productivity growth that separates today from the 1970s. He explains why the Magnificent Seven's PE drop from 31 to 25 makes them attractive again, and how baby boomers' $85 trillion in net worth is quietly keeping the economy afloat. Ed lays out his case for both the S&P 500 and gold reaching 10,000 by the end of the decade. He warns the real danger is a layering of shocks: oil, inflation, AI displacement, and private credit, each manageable alone but potentially recessionary in combination.

💡With recession odds rising and Ed still calling for $10,000 gold, positioning in real assets has never mattered more. Join Wealthion's Real Assets Community: https://wealthion.com/getready

💡Ed's been calling gold right since $2,000. His next target: $6,000 this year, $10,000 by end of decade. GBI Direct, The Best Way to Invest in Gold and Silver: https://gbidirect.com/?aff=WTH

💡Attend Rick Rules’ Natural Resource Symposium in Boca Raton this July, click here for in-person and virtual tickets: https://cvent.me/XOqdLa?via=Wealthion

Chapters:

0:35 - Do We Have a Structural Inflation Problem?

7:51 - Will War Disruptions Hit Corporate Earnings?

9:55 - Is a Recession Finally Coming This Time?

11:44 - Where Is the Earnings Resilience Actually Coming From?

15:38 - Are We Dancing on the Deck of the Titanic?

19:33 - Will AI's Job Threat Offset the Productivity Boom?

23:14 - How Should Investors Position Their Portfolios Right Now?

26:53 - Will Gold and Silver Resume Their Rally?

30:28 - ⭐️WealthiGold at $10,000: Portfolio Hedge or Market Signal?

33:29 - Is the Bond Market Still a Safe Haven?

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