FEAR & GREED | Business News Q+A: The Week Ahead | 23 Mar 2026
Mar 22, 2026
Stephen Koukoulas, economist and commentator known as 'The Kook', offers quick macro reads and forecasting. He discusses the limits of monthly inflation data and why RBA watches quarterly trends. He weighs how the Middle East oil shock changes interpretation of February figures and explains why petrol spikes can both slow spending and hit GDP growth.
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February Inflation Still Useful Despite Calendar Quirk
- Monthly CPI still contains useful signals despite short history and the RBA preferring quarterly data.
- February CPI likely ~3.7–3.8% annual headline and trim ~3.3–3.4%, excluding the later petrol shock.
Petrol Shock Not Reflected In February CPI
- February CPI excludes the oil price jump because that sharp petrol rise occurred in March after the reference period.
- The RBA hiked because inflation was elevated relative to target even before the petrol shock.
Oil Shock Acts Like A Tax On Growth
- Oil price shocks can be contractionary because higher petrol spending reduces discretionary spending elsewhere.
- That effect can weaken non-oil inflation components as consumers cut other purchases.