The Emerging Markets Podcast by Tellimer

Sovereign Credit Risk: The Challenges for Investors

Feb 3, 2026

Dr. Lupin Rahman, sovereign debt expert and author with experience at PIMCO, the IMF and the World Bank. She discusses how sovereign credit risk now shapes global fixed income. Topics include rising debt in advanced economies, policy credibility and geopolitics, the EM playbook’s wider relevance, ESG in sovereign analysis, and how digitisation and tokenisation could change sovereign issuance.

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INSIGHT

Sovereign Debt Is Market-Moving

Sovereign debt is now an active transmission mechanism in global markets, not a passive backdrop.
Rising public debt changes term premia, currency dynamics, and feedback into banks and corporates.

INSIGHT

EM Tools Apply To Developed Markets

The EM playbook now applies to many developed economies as debt burdens rise.
Investors must adopt EM-style risk thinking when analysing advanced-country sovereigns.

ADVICE

Use Scenario Probabilities For Political Risk

Price geopolitics and political risk using scenario probabilities rather than single-point forecasts.
Evaluate multiple outcome paths instead of one deterministic default forecast.

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Dr. Lupin Rahman, leading sovereign debt expert and author of The Sovereign Debt Investor, joins Tellimer Founder & CEO Duncan Wales to discuss why sovereign credit risk is no longer confined to emerging markets, and how the EM playbook is increasingly shaping global fixed income. Drawing on Lupin's experience at PIMCO, the IMF, and the World Bank, the conversation explores how rising debt burdens in advanced economies are turning sovereign debt into an active driver of market volatility, challenging traditional assumptions around the risk-free rate. They also examine the importance of policy credibility, geopolitics and scenario-based risk pricing, the growing role of ESG as a core component of sovereign analysis, and how digitisation, tokenisation, and stablecoin adoption could transform sovereign issuance and investor access as global markets enter a more complex and differentiated phase in 2026.

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The Emerging Markets Podcast dives into a range of topics in the emerging and frontier market world including investment themes, debt restructuring, elections, and geopolitical tensions.

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