Agile Mentors Podcast from Mountain Goat Software

#174: Why Estimating Still Matters with Mike Cohn

Feb 11, 2026

Mike Cohn, agile practitioner and CEO of Mountain Goat Software, shares his take on estimating and planning. He explains why estimates provoke strong reactions. He contrasts story points and hours, discusses the no-estimates movement, and recommends estimating only when it informs decisions. He also covers flow metrics, responsible ranges, and ways to keep planning from harming trust.

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ADVICE

Treat Story Points As Effort Not Time

Use story points as an abstraction measuring effort from complexity, risk, uncertainty, and volume rather than mapping them to time.
Mike warns against treating points as days because that misunderstanding causes wide misuse.

ADVICE

Use Quick Guesses To Size Sprints Then Drop Them

In sprint planning, start with quick, 30-second estimates on sprint backlog items but drop them later if the team proves reliable.
Use those quick estimates only to decide how much work to pull into the sprint.

INSIGHT

Estimates Exist To Enable Tradeoff Decisions

Estimation's core purpose is enabling decisions: a product owner may accept a 3-point feature but reject it at 20 points.
Sprint-level estimates also spark design conversations that can trade programming for testing time to reduce overall cost.

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Estimating can bring out strong reactions, and for good reason. Mike Cohn and Brian Milner unpack why it gets misused, what “estimate responsibly” really means, and how to use planning to make better decisions without turning numbers into weapons.

Overview

In this episode, Brian sits down with Mike Cohn to talk about estimating and planning in a way that teams can actually live with. They explore why estimates became such a hot button topic, what the “no estimates” movement is reacting to, and how Mike’s thinking has evolved over time. You will hear practical guidance on story points versus time, why teams should estimate only when it helps someone make a decision, and how to keep estimates from damaging trust. They also cover where flow metrics help, where they fall short, and how teams build credibility with leadership through responsible planning.

References and resources mentioned in the show:

Mike Cohn
Estimating & Planning in Agile - A 2026 Field Guide
Accurate Agile Planning Course
Blog: Estimating and Planning in Agile: Why They Still Matter in 2026 by Mike Cohn
Blog: Getting Better Estimates Is Easier Than You Think by Mike Cohn
Blog: What Are Agile Story Points? By Mike Cohn
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This episode’s presenters are:

Brian Milner is a Certified Scrum Trainer®, Certified Scrum Professional®, Certified ScrumMaster®, and Certified Scrum Product Owner®, and host of the Agile Mentors Podcast training at Mountain Goat Software. He's passionate about making a difference in people's day-to-day work, influenced by his own experience of transitioning to Scrum and seeing improvements in work/life balance, honesty, respect, and the quality of work.

Mike Cohn, CEO of Mountain Goat Software, is a passionate advocate for agile methodologies. Co-founder of Agile Alliance and Scrum Alliance, he thrives on helping companies succeed with Agile and witnessing its transformative impact on individuals' careers. Mike resides in Northern Idaho with his family, two Havanese dogs, and an impressive hot sauce collection.