Global Macro Update Bonds Don't Lie
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Feb 27, 2026 
Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro, is a macro forecaster focused on labor, inflation, and rates. He explains why falling 10-year yields are a meaningful signal. He discusses four reasons to be cautious on growth, how tariffs change relative prices, and whether AI is really moving jobs or productivity today.
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Four Indicators Flip From 2022 To Signal Downside Risk
- Neil Dutta is more cautious than consensus because labor, housing, state/local budgets, and expectations are weakening despite AI optimism and tax refunds.
- He compares the same four indicators he used in 2022 but now they point toward slowing growth and downside risk.
Rents And Wage Ads Point Toward Disinflation
- Dutta expects further disinflation, not deflation, driven by falling rents and cooling wage growth.
- Market measures like Zillow and Indeed show rents and advertised wages sliding, reducing core inflationary pressure over 12 months.
Tariffs Create Relative Price Shifts Not Lasting Inflation
- Tariffs act as a relative price shift raising import prices but not adding broad purchasing power, so they raise some prices while depressing other spending.
- Dutta emphasizes tariffs are largely one-off and reduce household real budgets absent fiscal offsets.