From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano Bears Are WRONG About The Software Stock Sell-Off! Here's The REAL Data
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Mar 30, 2026 A data-driven take on the steep 32% software sell-off since September. A breakdown of two waves that crushed SaaS and which companies are bucking the trend. A case for incumbents monetizing AI using data and distribution. What milestones would flip the market narrative and where upside could appear.
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Two Waves Drove The Software Sell-Off
- Software drawdown came from two distinct waves: macro rate shock and AI-driven structural fears.
- Fast-rate hikes cut long-duration SaaS multiples; then AI seat compression fears (fewer licenses) amplified the sell-off with examples like Atlassian and Workday.
Examples Of Software Winners During The Drop
- Some software companies are bucking the trend by growing into AI infrastructure winners.
- Palantir surged 135% with 121% U.S. commercial growth and gave $7 billion FY26 revenue guidance; Oracle and Microsoft posted huge cloud growth numbers.
Incumbents Can Build Their Own AI Moats
- Market is treating non-infrastructure application software as damaged goods despite incumbents actively building AI layers.
- Incumbents hold proprietary data, customer relationships, and distribution advantages that make them hard to displace quickly.