Wall Street Breakfast Trump gives Hormuz ultimatum but markets wary
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Mar 22, 2026 A 48-hour ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz and why traders doubt it will reopen. How oil flows, WTI moves, and implications for inflation and Fed rate odds. GameStop’s holiday quarter and Ryan Cohen’s plan to build a Berkshire-style platform. A jury finding that Elon Musk misled investors about Twitter. OpenAI’s big hiring push and upcoming dividend dates for major names.
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Hormuz Ultimatum Raises Oil And Rate Risk
- President Donald Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on power plants.
- The strait handles ~20% of global oil and WTI briefly topped $100, pushing inflation and reducing odds of Fed rate cuts this year.
Markets Doubt Quick Reopening Despite Ultimatum
- Prediction markets show traders skeptical that traffic will quickly return, with Polymarket at 30% by end-April and Calci rising probabilities into June and July.
- Oil volatility reflected that skepticism: WTI spiked above $100 on IG and ~ $98 on a blockchain market.
Higher Oil Narrows Path To Fed Cuts
- Rising oil prices from the Hormuz threat are adding upward pressure to inflation expectations.
- Fed funds futures now imply almost a one-in-three chance rates end the year higher, wiping out earlier cut expectations.