Talking Geopolitics Why Trump Is Not to Blame for Europe's Predicament
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Feb 19, 2026 
George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures and bestselling author, provides long-form geopolitical analysis. He examines US–Europe tensions, why Americans view European reliance as exploitation, and whether Europe can build unified defense capacity. He questions Europe's ability to act as a single actor and considers the shifting US strategic focus and its consequences for European security.
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US Views Its European Role As Strategic Interest
- The United States sees decades of defending Europe as strategic self-interest, not moral charity, and now considers withdrawal reasonable.
- Europeans expect a continuing U.S. guarantee, creating mutual feelings of betrayal and exploitation.
Europe Is Many States, Not One Actor
- There is no single 'Europe' in geopolitical terms; it's ~50 states with differing languages, cultures and interests.
- The U.S. wants Europeans to 'grow up' and either unite or accept independent national decisions on defense.
Decide Whether To Integrate Or Self-Defend
- Europeans must choose: integrate militarily or accept relying less on the U.S. for security.
- If they want continued U.S. presence, they must make the economic and political sacrifices to justify it.