The Foreign Desk Explainer 509: Is Cuba next on Trump’s hit list?
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Mar 18, 2026 Discussion of whether Donald Trump might set his sights on Cuba, weighing motive and symbolism. Analyzes the chances he would order military action and the practical challenges of a campaign. Considers the human, economic and reputational costs of invading. Explores how domestic politics and headlines could drive such a decision.
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Trump Has Publicly Sized Up Cuba As A Target
- Donald Trump has publicly signalled interest in annexing or seizing nearby countries and has specifically been sizing up Cuba as a potential target.
- Andrew Muller notes Trump floated similar ideas for Canada, Greenland and Venezuela, but views Cuba as more proximate and vulnerable, making it politically tempting.
Cuba Would Be Militarily Outmatched
- Militarily the US could likely overpower Cuba given Cuba's outdated armed forces and limited navy and air power.
- Muller describes Cuba's Air Force as a "Soviet aviation museum" and its navy as old trawlers with unreliable Soviet missiles, underlining asymmetry in capability.
Occupation Could Mirror Past Guerilla Nightmares
- A land occupation of Cuba would still be difficult because of terrain and local resistance, echoing past US failures like the Bay of Pigs and guerrilla challenges.
- Muller warns that mountains, jungles and irritated locals could make occupation "hauntingly irksome" despite military superiority.