GD POLITICS Have We Achieved The Goldilocks Economy?
Feb 23, 2026
Jason Furman, Harvard economist and former chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, offers sharp analysis of recent policy and data. They unpack the Supreme Court tariff ruling and its effects on trade and business decisions. He argues we may have achieved a rare soft landing, weighs recession risks, discusses AI’s productivity prospects, and reviews taxes, housing policy, and Fed strategy.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Shutdown Distorted Q4 GDP Lower
- Q4 GDP fell to 1.4% mainly because the government shutdown reduced effective government services, subtracting ~1.1 percentage point.
- Furman expects that output to rebound in Q1, making Q4 distortions temporary.
Case For An Undeniable Soft Landing
- Furman tentatively calls this a soft landing: inflation falling without a recession, with unemployment stabilised in the low 4s.
- He forecasts year-end PCE inflation around 2.5% and highlights measurement quirks and transient price drivers.
Recession Risk Is About Average
- Furman sets recession risk at about 15% over 12 months, roughly baseline, because many indicators look similar to prior year.
- He describes 2025 as a supertanker continuing its prior course despite policy changes like tariffs.