Know Your Risk Podcast The Oil Risk Nobody Is Talking About
Mar 10, 2026
A deep look at how oil pricing, the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s tactics could reshape global markets. Discussion covers possible mining of the strait, why oil seems mispriced today, and how physical shortages could break paper prices. Also explores strategic leverage, risky trading moves, and why oil exposure might serve as a hedge amid rising geopolitical pressure.
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Host Made A 15 Minute Oil Pricing Explainer
- Zach recounts making a 15-minute explainer on how oil is priced to correct public misinformation.
- He says Venezuela's issues don't affect global prices and urges listeners to watch the video for clarity.
Global Pricing Trumps Local Oil Disruptions
- Oil pricing is disconnected from local production issues like Venezuela; global benchmarks and shipping chokepoints drive prices.
- Zach Abraham explains that pricing is set by global flows and the Strait of Hormuz's status, not isolated supply shocks.
Strait Of Hormuz Controls The Global Shock
- A closed Strait of Hormuz would drastically raise oil to catastrophic levels and cripple markets; reopening timing matters more than political statements.
- Abraham war-games outcomes: Iran can keep the strait closed to extract concessions, making oil the leverage point.