Daniel Davis Deep Dive The Next American Civil War: Update #5 /Lt Col Daniel Davis
Feb 5, 2026
Stephen Marsh, author and analyst of political violence, offers a stark mini bio as a writer on democratic decline. He assesses rising risk of internal conflict, defines civil war thresholds versus political violence, and flags Minnesota and federal-state fractures as flashpoints. Discussion covers Guard militarization, constitutional erosion, election-related escalation, and why 2026 feels especially dangerous.
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Violence Has Become Normalized
- Political violence in the U.S. has become normalized and now affects discourse like the Troubles or Italy's Years of Lead.
- Stephen Marsh warns this normalization is a preview of civil war even if it hasn't reached PRIO thresholds yet.
Federal-State Fracture Is Escalating
- Conflicts are shifting from county to state and military levels, creating unprecedented clashes between federal and subnational authorities.
- Marsh says such mismatches remove clear constitutional resolution paths and raise the risk of force deciding disputes.
Militarizing Cities Erodes Trust
- Deploying the National Guard in cities politicizes the military and erodes its bipartisan trust and institutional reputation.
- Marsh warns this undermines the last broadly trusted American institution and risks long-term damage.
