The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series Iraq, Oil, and a Break for Chevron || Peter Zeihan
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Mar 13, 2026 A sharp look at why U.S. oil firms shunned postwar Iraq despite claims the war was about oil. Discussion of sanctions sidelining Lukoil and how Chevron may step in to operate West Qurna. Exploration of how simple infrastructure and existing pipelines could allow rapid output growth. Political ratification in Baghdad and U.S.-Iraq ties are flagged as decisive factors.
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Why American Oil Firms Shunned Post‑War Iraq
- U.S. oil firms largely avoided post‑Saddam Iraq despite allegations the war was "for oil."
- Active insurgency, 100,000 U.S. troops, and a sectarian, disorganized Iraqi government made investment commercially unattractive.
Sanctions Open The Door For Chevron
- Lukoil ran West Karnafto up to ~450–500kb/d but U.S. sanctions cut it off from dollar markets, forcing its exit and nationalization.
- Iraq's Basra Oil Company now negotiates with Chevron to take over operations.
Why West Karnafto Is A Rapid Production Win
- Chevron could rapidly scale West Karnafto from ~500kb/d to over 1mb/d within five years.
- The field is technically simple, large, near labor, and already has pipeline and offloading infrastructure.