The Nonlinear Library AF - Critical review of Christiano's disagreements with Yudkowsky by Vanessa Kosoy
Dec 27, 2023
25:06
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Critical review of Christiano's disagreements with Yudkowsky, published by Vanessa Kosoy on December 27, 2023 on The AI Alignment Forum.
This is a review of Paul Christiano's article "where I agree and disagree with Eliezer". Written for the LessWrong 2022 Review.
In the existential AI safety community, there is an ongoing debate between positions situated differently on some axis which doesn't have a common agreed-upon name, but where Christiano and Yudkowsky can be regarded as representatives of the two directions[1]. For the sake of this review, I will dub the camps gravitating to the different ends of this axis "Prosers" (after prosaic alignment) and "Poets"[2]. Christiano is a Proser, and so are most people in AI safety groups in the industry. Yudkowsky is a typical Poet, people in MIRI and the agent foundations community tend to also be such.
Prosers tend to be more optimistic, lend more credence to slow takeoff, and place more value on empirical research and solving problems by reproducing them in the lab and iterating on the design. Poets tend to be more pessimistic, lend more credence to fast takeoff, and place more value on theoretical research and solving problems on paper before they become observable in existing AI systems. Few people are absolute purists in those respects: almost nobody in the community believes that e.g. empirical research or solving problems on paper in advance is completely worthless.
In this article, Christiano lists his agreements and disagreements with Yudkowsky. The resulting list can serve as a reasonable starting point for understanding the differences of Proser and Poet positions. In this regard it is not perfect: the tone and many of the details are influenced by Christiano's reactions to Yudkowsky's personal idiosyncrasies and also by the specific content of Yudkwosky's article "AGI Ruin" to which Christiano is responding.
Moreover, it is in places hard to follow because Christiano responds to Yudkowsky without restating Yudkowsky's position first. Nevertheless, it does touch on most of the key points of contention.
In this review, I will try to identify the main generators of Christiano's disagreements with Yudkowsky and add my personal commentary. Since I can be classified as a Poet myself, my commentary is mostly critical. This doesn't mean I agree with Yudkowsky everywhere. On many points I have significant uncertainty. On some, I disagree with both Christiano and Yudkowsky[3].
Takeoff Speeds
See also "Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss Takeoff Speeds".
Christiano believes that AI progress will (probably) be gradual, smooth, and relatively predictable, with each advance increasing capabilities by a little, receiving widespread economic use, and adopted by multiple actors before it is compounded by the next advance, all the way to transformative AI (TAI). This scenario is known as "slow takeoff".
Yudkowsky believes that AI progress will (probably) be erratic, involve sudden capability jumps, important advances that have only minor economic impact and winner-takes-all[4] dynamics. That scenario is known as "fast takeoff"[5].
This disagreement is upsteam of multiple other disagreements. For example:
In slow takeoff scenarios there's more you can gain from experimentation and iteration (disagreement #1 in Christiano's list), because you have AI systems similar enough to TAI for long enough before TAI arrives. In fast takeoff, the opposite is true.
The notion of "pivotal act" (disagreements #5 and #6) makes more sense in a fast takeoff world. If the takeoff is sufficiently fast, there will be one actor that creates TAI in a world where no other AI is close to transformative. The kind of AI that's created then determines the entire future, and hence whatever this AI does constitutes a "pivotal act".
It also figures in disagreeme...
This is a review of Paul Christiano's article "where I agree and disagree with Eliezer". Written for the LessWrong 2022 Review.
In the existential AI safety community, there is an ongoing debate between positions situated differently on some axis which doesn't have a common agreed-upon name, but where Christiano and Yudkowsky can be regarded as representatives of the two directions[1]. For the sake of this review, I will dub the camps gravitating to the different ends of this axis "Prosers" (after prosaic alignment) and "Poets"[2]. Christiano is a Proser, and so are most people in AI safety groups in the industry. Yudkowsky is a typical Poet, people in MIRI and the agent foundations community tend to also be such.
Prosers tend to be more optimistic, lend more credence to slow takeoff, and place more value on empirical research and solving problems by reproducing them in the lab and iterating on the design. Poets tend to be more pessimistic, lend more credence to fast takeoff, and place more value on theoretical research and solving problems on paper before they become observable in existing AI systems. Few people are absolute purists in those respects: almost nobody in the community believes that e.g. empirical research or solving problems on paper in advance is completely worthless.
In this article, Christiano lists his agreements and disagreements with Yudkowsky. The resulting list can serve as a reasonable starting point for understanding the differences of Proser and Poet positions. In this regard it is not perfect: the tone and many of the details are influenced by Christiano's reactions to Yudkowsky's personal idiosyncrasies and also by the specific content of Yudkwosky's article "AGI Ruin" to which Christiano is responding.
Moreover, it is in places hard to follow because Christiano responds to Yudkowsky without restating Yudkowsky's position first. Nevertheless, it does touch on most of the key points of contention.
In this review, I will try to identify the main generators of Christiano's disagreements with Yudkowsky and add my personal commentary. Since I can be classified as a Poet myself, my commentary is mostly critical. This doesn't mean I agree with Yudkowsky everywhere. On many points I have significant uncertainty. On some, I disagree with both Christiano and Yudkowsky[3].
Takeoff Speeds
See also "Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss Takeoff Speeds".
Christiano believes that AI progress will (probably) be gradual, smooth, and relatively predictable, with each advance increasing capabilities by a little, receiving widespread economic use, and adopted by multiple actors before it is compounded by the next advance, all the way to transformative AI (TAI). This scenario is known as "slow takeoff".
Yudkowsky believes that AI progress will (probably) be erratic, involve sudden capability jumps, important advances that have only minor economic impact and winner-takes-all[4] dynamics. That scenario is known as "fast takeoff"[5].
This disagreement is upsteam of multiple other disagreements. For example:
In slow takeoff scenarios there's more you can gain from experimentation and iteration (disagreement #1 in Christiano's list), because you have AI systems similar enough to TAI for long enough before TAI arrives. In fast takeoff, the opposite is true.
The notion of "pivotal act" (disagreements #5 and #6) makes more sense in a fast takeoff world. If the takeoff is sufficiently fast, there will be one actor that creates TAI in a world where no other AI is close to transformative. The kind of AI that's created then determines the entire future, and hence whatever this AI does constitutes a "pivotal act".
It also figures in disagreeme...