Alternate Shots with Richard Haass and John Ellis Missiles, Missteps, and Middle East Math: Episode 19
Mar 4, 2026
A brisk unpacking of U.S. strategy toward Iran and whether current plans match realistic goals. A look at strained air-defense stockpiles and how low-cost drones and missiles shift the balance. Discussion of how a widening Middle East fight could boost Russia, drain support for Ukraine, and intensify domestic political pressure. Ends with a quick sports roundup.
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Episode notes
Military Strikes Can Only Degrade Not Democratize
- A realistic best-case of Epic Fury is tactical degradation not regime change.
- Richard Haass argues strikes can set back nuclear and missile programs and disrupt leadership but won't produce democratic transition quickly.
Iranian Institutions Persist Despite Leadership Losses
- Haass recounts that many Iranian leaders, including the Ayatollah, have been killed or disrupted yet institutions remain intact.
- He notes Iran's civilian councils, security forces, and succession plans limit prospects for rapid regime collapse.
Ends And Means Are Not Aligned In Washington
- The administration lacks a coherent strategy marrying means and ends for the war.
- Haass calls the objective of offshore regime change far-fetched and says ends are all over the place, implying goals must be scaled back.