KQED's Forum What Would Escalation in Iran Look Like?
Mar 24, 2026
Mark Hertling, retired U.S. Army lieutenant general and former commander in Europe and Iraq, reflects on combat, leadership, and his wartime memoir. He discusses risks of escalation with Iran, flaws in strategy and assumptions, asymmetric retaliation and cyber threats, the dangers of a ground invasion, and how citizens can influence decisions. Short readings and personal reflections punctuate the conversation.
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The Enemy Always Gets A Vote
- War plans often fail because the opponent 'gets a vote' and reacts unpredictably.
- Hertling emphasizes planning branches and red-teaming so forces can adapt when the enemy changes the situation.
Underestimating Iran's Asymmetric Warfare
- U.S. underestimation of Iran's asymmetric capabilities hurt operations.
- Hertling notes Iran's effective drone use, strategic closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and rejected advice from Ukraine on drone defense.
Don't Expect Small Deployments To Solve Big Problems
- Avoid assuming a small force can secure Iran or the Straits; logistics and terrain matter hugely.
- Hertling warns 10,000 troops face supply challenges across mountainous, urban Iran with 92 million people.
