BONUS SEASON: The Complexity Conundrum

What if what's defeating us isn't the speed of change but the complexity — multiple crises amplifying each other in ways that no forecasting tool was ever built to handle? In this third episode of Season 7 — The Change Fatigue Remedy Series — Dr Michelle McQuaid sits down with Dr Margaret Heffernan, professor of practice at the University of Bath and author of Embracing Uncertainty, to explore why the focus on efficiency leaves organizations more fragile when complexity hits — and why we need to prioritize optionality instead. Drawing on her work with organizations navigating the polycrisis, Margaret introduces the shift from just-in-time to just-in-case thinking, the early warning system every workplace needs, and what it looks like to trust ourselves and each other in the midst of unpredictability.

01:36 Margaret explains why we struggle with uncertainty — and why the promise that data and models can deliver certainty is oversold.

05:00 Margaret outlines what the world's best forecasters say about how far ahead anyone can reliably predict changes — and what that means for our strategy plans.

08:04 Margaret makes the case for optionality over efficiency: when a surprise comes along, running too lean leaves you more fragile.

12:41 Margaret explains the polycrisis — multiple crises amplifying each other — and why supply chains built for maximum efficiency have become a liability when complexity hit.

19:29 Margaret introduces the shift from just-in-time to just-in-case thinking — and the shares examples of how this builds resilience in workplaces.

26:22 Margaret describes what a language of uncertainty sounds like for leaders: not an admission of defeat, but naming what's complex and opening the conversation to options.

28:03 Margaret outlines the practice of naming your assumptions after a decision — and agreeing in advance on the signals that would tell you the plan isn't playing out as intended.

32:09 Michelle shares what the Change Lab research found at the organisational level: making help-seeking the norm and breaking change into tiny steps so teams can sense, learn, and adapt.

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