Iran: The Latest 'No limits': Russia, China and US enter new nuclear arms race
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Feb 4, 2026 Darya Dolzikova, RUSI expert on nuclear modernization, and Matthew Bunn, Harvard specialist in nonproliferation, discuss the fallout of New START's expiry. They explore why the U.S. and Russia retain huge arsenals. They examine China’s rapid buildup, novel Russian systems, trilateral control challenges, and how AI and decision speed raise new risks.
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New START's Central Role In Nuclear Stability
- New START capped each side at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and limited launchers, creating predictability between the U.S. and Russia.
- Its expiration on Feb 5 leaves no agreed limits on the largest nuclear arsenals for the first time in half a century.
China's Buildup Ups Pressure On U.S. Forces
- U.S. planners worry China’s rapid buildup means they may need forces able to target Russian and Chinese sites simultaneously.
- Some in the U.S. argue current stockpiles are insufficient and call for uploading warheads onto existing missiles.
Verification And Trilateral Gaps Broke Momentum
- Talks stalled because the bilateral framework left China unconstrained and Moscow's tentative extension offer lacked data exchanges and other assurances.
- Russia also cut off on-site inspections and data exchanges after Ukrainian attacks, degrading verification mechanisms.