The Breakdown Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle Isn’t What You Think | The Breakdown
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Mar 10, 2026 Marc Arjoon, Blockworks Research analyst and Inflection Point host, brings research-driven market analysis to the conversation. He discusses whether Bitcoin’s halving still matters, miner behavior and inventories, and how institutional flows like ETFs and treasury buyers reshape market rhythms. Short, sharp takes on narrative versus supply and which investor types really move the market.
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Halving Is Now A Market Coordination Event
- Bitcoin's halving cycle persists largely as a coordinated social rhythm rather than a pure supply shock.
- David Canellis argues halvings now act as market coordination points because miners, traders, funds, and media plan around the calendar.
Early Halvings Caused Structural Turbulence
- Early halvings created big structural shocks because Bitcoin markets were thin and miners faced bankruptcies.
- David Canellis explains that now the block reward is smaller so halvings trigger more narrative and behavioral effects than immediate market collapses.
Institutions Follow The Halving Rhythm Too
- ETFs and treasury companies plugged into the halving rhythm, sometimes stabilizing and other times front-running it.
- David Canellis notes treasury buys absorbed selling in late 2024 while ETFs front-ran SEC approval to push prices to new highs.