Deep Dish on Global Affairs Is the Middle East Heading Toward a Much Bigger War?
Apr 2, 2026
Fawaz Gerges, LSE professor of Middle East politics and author, offers a sharp read on the region’s spiraling conflict. He explains why the war has widened beyond Iran. He discusses risks of escalation, Israel’s aims in Lebanon, humanitarian collapse, and where global leadership has faltered.
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Conflict Has Become A Region Wide War
- The current conflict is no longer an Iran-only war but a region-wide war spreading across the Gulf, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
- Iran now exerts strategic leverage by threatening the Strait of Hormuz and, via proxies, Bab al-Mandeb, risking major global economic shocks from blocked oil and shipping.
Attacks Strengthened Iranian Regime Instead Of Toppling It
- The expectation that strikes would trigger an Iranian popular uprising backfired and instead strengthened the regime's cohesion.
- Calls by leaders like Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu for Iranians to rise up ignored Iran's national pride and produced consolidation rather than collapse.
No Endgame And China As Potential Guarantor
- There is no clear endgame from the U.S. side because decision-making is personalized and institutions are weakened, creating strategic drift.
- Iran demands durable guarantees backed by a respected power, making China the likeliest guarantor given U.S. credibility problems.