Wake Up to Money Oil in troubled waters
Mar 16, 2026
Mark Neill, founder and CEO of Mountain Warehouse, on supply-chain strain, freight rerouting and UK shoppers’ price sensitivity. Anna MacDonald, investment manager at Albury Capital, on oil-driven market risks, inflation and rate outlooks. Penny Hughes, chair of Riverstone Living and consumer veteran, on luxury later-living demand and housing shortfalls. They discuss oil supply threats, pump-price spikes and pressures on retailers.
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Tiny Karg Island Carries Huge Market Risk
- Disruption at small but strategic sites like Karg Island risks removing ~1.5m barrels a day of Iranian crude, sharply tightening markets.
- Gavin Thompson warned the island is tiny yet handles most Iranian exports, so any contagion would spike prices.
Watch Duration Not Just Price Levels
- Monitor conflict duration as the key variable for oil's peak and how quickly supply can return.
- Gavin Thompson said if guarantees and strait reopening come within weeks, markets can rebalance quickly from current tightness.
Modern Economies Are Less Oil Dependent
- Developed economies use far less oil per unit of GDP now, so demand destruction thresholds differ from past crises.
- Anna MacDonald argued deindustrialisation and alternative fuels mean shocks leave lower equilibrium prices over time.