Radio National Breakfast $90 billion erased from Australian sharemarket as oil prices surge
Mar 9, 2026
Sally Auld, NAB chief economist who analyzes inflation, labour markets and commodity shocks. She breaks down how Middle East turmoil and $100+ oil is driving big losses on the ASX. Short-term pain for household budgets from pricier petrol and diesel. Discussion of Australia’s energy exposure, fuel stockpiles and why stagflation looks unlikely given a strong labour market.
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Oil Shock Could Push Inflation To 5%
- Australia's inflation is already elevated with headline near 4% and core around 3.5%, so an oil shock can push inflation materially higher.
- NAB warns oil-driven rises could lift headline inflation to about 5% by mid-year depending on where oil prices settle.
Higher Fuel Hits Households And Business Margins
- Higher oil and petrol directly raise household living costs and business transport expenses, squeezing budgets and profit margins.
- NAB notes households have rebuilt savings recently, giving some capacity to absorb shocks, but businesses face margin pressure from rising transport costs.
Stagflation Risk Is Limited By Low Unemployment
- Oil-price shocks raise inflation and can slow growth, creating a dilemma for central banks between rising prices and employment.
- Sally Auld says true stagflation would require much higher unemployment than current low-four percent rates.