The Markets “Still Bullish Gold”
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Feb 13, 2026 Lina Thomas, senior commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs who specializes in gold and silver markets, breaks down recent gold volatility and what fueled the 2025 rally. She explains how call-option flows amplified price swings. She outlines a bullish outlook with a $5,400/oz year-end 2026 forecast and contrasts gold’s steady central bank demand with silver’s higher volatility.
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Call Options Fueled A Self-Reinforcing Gold Rally
- Gold's rally was driven by private investors buying alongside central banks, lowering opportunity cost as the Fed cut.
- Rising call-option demand forced dealers to buy bullion to hedge, amplifying the rally until a break triggered cascading selling.
Gold Forecast: $5,400 With Upside Risk
- Goldman Sachs remains bullish and forecasts gold at $5,400/oz by end-2026 while noting upside risk.
- That base forecast assumes continued central bank purchases and private investor buying tied to Fed cuts, but additional diversification flows could raise prices further.
London Vaults Create Silver Liquidity Squeeze
- London silver vault liquidity has thinned as half of stored silver is already allocated and buffers were moved to the U.S. amid tariff worries.
- Low liquidity amplified silver moves: limited supply in London created extreme upswings on buying and sharp drops on pullbacks.