The Rundown Is the Market Misreading the Biggest Energy Shock In Modern History? (Ft. Amos Hochstein)
Mar 29, 2026
Amos Hochstein, Managing Partner at TWG Global and former White House senior advisor on energy and national security. He explains backchannel diplomacy and negotiating with parties who refuse direct talks. He warns markets may be underpricing a major energy disruption and discusses the gap between paper and physical oil prices, impacts of a closed Strait of Hormuz, and what policymakers might have done differently.
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How Backchannel Diplomacy Actually Works
- Backchannel negotiations often run through intermediaries who relay and sometimes reshape messages.
- Amos explains U.S. talks with Iran now use Oman or Pakistan as go-betweens rather than direct face-to-face talks.
Markets Confuse Risk With Actual Disruption
- The market is underpricing the current energy crisis as a disruption rather than mere risk.
- Amos Hochstein says 12 million barrels/day, 20% of LNG, and major fertilizer and jet fuel shortages make this the worst energy disruption ever.
Physical Oil Can Trade Far Above Paper Prices
- Paper oil prices diverge from physical prices during the crisis, creating a false sense of supply.
- Amos notes a physical cargo pickup in Oman traded near $150 while Brent futures were around $110.