Macrodose Past Peak Coal
Feb 11, 2026
Discussion of new forecasts showing coal use may have peaked despite rising energy demand. Examination of China's surge in coal approvals and shrinking hydropower from reduced snow and droughts. Exploration of widening adaptation shortfalls, missed private investment in resilience, and debates over data centres' local costs versus claimed job benefits.
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Electricity Demand Rises While Renewables Catch Up
- Global electricity demand is rising rapidly due to EVs, industry, AC and data centres.
- The IEA forecasts renewables will match and begin to squeeze out coal even as demand grows.
China's Pre-Rule Coal Push Risks Reversing Gains
- China developers are rushing to approve coal plants before tighter climate rules arrive.
- New approvals would threaten global progress in reducing coal electricity generation.
Hydro Shortfalls Reduce Dispatchable Power
- Europe's hydropower fell sharply due to below-normal snow and rainfall in key catchments.
- Reduced hydro lowers dispatchable power and increases reliance on fossil fuels during peaks.