The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Why haven’t stocks crashed yet?
Mar 26, 2026
Discussion of why stocks remain buoyant despite mounting macro cracks. Exploration of crowded bullish positioning and the triggers that can force cross-asset reversals. Analysis of the Iran conflict, energy chokepoints, and how oil disruptions could speed negative growth and earnings revisions. Practical risk overlays and institutional frameworks for protecting portfolios amid information asymmetry.
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Positive Bayesian Priors Are Preventing A Crash
- Stocks haven't crashed because institutional Bayesian priors for growth, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and liquidity remained positive at the conflict's start.
- Darius Dale warns those priors will be revised lower as the Iran conflict removes petroleum products and negative GDP/earnings revisions snowball.
Labor Data Masks Crowded Bullish Positioning
- Current U.S. initial and continuing jobless claims and 42 Macro FAB 5 signal a low recession probability.
- The positioning model shows historic crowded bullishness, raising crash risk if priors shift despite benign near-term labor data.
Two Preconditions For Cross Asset Crashes
- Cross-asset crashes need two conditions: crowded bullish positioning and new information that forces durable revision of positive priors.
- Darius emphasizes both must occur together, explaining why crashes haven't happened yet.