The Core Report #831 The Markets Rise for the Second Day
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Mar 25, 2026 Ayaz Mehman, cricket writer analyzing IPL sales and valuations. Garima Kapoor, chief economist at Elara Securities on inflation, currency and geopolitics. They discuss market moves as oil falls and peace manoeuvres influence equities. They unpack Iran-related pressure on markets, India’s inflation and rupee risks, and the strategic sales and future health of IPL franchises.
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Early Shock Shows In Currency Not Consumer Prices
- Garima Kapoor separated impacts into tradable importable price rises and domestic pass-through, noting inflation hasn't fully passed to consumer prices yet.
- She highlighted currency volatility as the immediate channel showing the shock, with RBI interventions limited.
Avoid Overreacting With Heavy FX Intervention
- Do avoid heavy FX intervention or aggressive tightening now because it may be futile or harm growth; let flows and energy prices settle to find a rupee floor.
- Garima Kapoor argued excessive intervention drains domestic liquidity and raises yields, suggesting limited RBI action.
Rising Yields Are Tightening Global Financial Conditions
- Global financial conditions are tightening as bond yields rise and margin calls trigger cross-asset selling, increasing fragility.
- Garima Kapoor noted US ten-year near 4.5% implies mortgage rates near 7% and rising contagion in gold and equities.