Lowy Institute After the unravelling: Confronting the new world order
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May 7, 2026 Tom Wright, senior fellow at Brookings and former NSC strategic planner, unpacks how China, Russia and the US systematically unwound the post‑Cold War restraints. He discusses Xi’s industrial dominance, Putin’s revision of borders, and the US shift toward transactional alliances. Short, sharp takes on rising militarisation, hedging by allies, and possible futures for great‑power rivalry.
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The World Is Taking On Prewar Characteristics
- Current international dynamics resemble a pre-war environment: rising arms spending, rapid weapons development, and leaders animated by closing-window national revivalism.
- Wright warns aging, ideological leaders increase risk-taking and make restraint harder, echoing 19th-century patterns.
War In Ukraine Deepened Rival Coalitions
- Russia's war accelerated alignments: deeper ties between Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are producing military technology flows and joint production.
- Wright warns a Taiwan conflict could cascade into simultaneous crises in Korea and Europe because of these alignments.
Allies Hedge By Enduring Pressure And Building Autonomy
- Allies are managing U.S. unpredictability by swallowing short-term costs while quietly building self-reliance through higher defence spending and cross-regional cooperation.
- Wright highlights Australia's central strategic dilemma: deepen self-reliance while sustaining the American alliance.