Bloomberg Talks Carlyle Group's Jeff Currie Talks Global Supply Chain, Oil
Mar 11, 2026
A conversation about how the Iran war is disrupting oil, gas, fertilizers, metals and petrochemical supply chains. Discussion of limited oil flow rates and why reserves cannot quickly plug gaps. Exploration of hoarding behavior, rising metals and gold demand, and why heavier physical assets may outperform. Examination of inflation, public debt pressures, and refined-fuel risks in Asia.
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Broad Global Supply Chain Damage From Iran Shock
- Global supply chains are widely disrupted beyond oil to gas, fertilizers, metals, and petrochemicals after the Iran war shock.
- Ships are misplaced, insurances canceled, and fields shut in Saudi, Iraq, and UAE, so damage will take months to unwind.
Flow Rate, Not Headline Barrels, Determines Relief
- No policy response can stop the immediate ascent in crude because flow rate, not headline barrels, determines supply relief.
- A 400 million barrel headline looks big but sustainable flow rate is ~2 million bpd, so headlines take months to translate into supply.
Act To Prevent Hoarding Immediately
- Keep hoarding down because consumer and national hoarding amplifies demand and worsens shortages.
- 1970s-style hoarding added ~2–3 million bpd demand on top of supply disruption, dramatically worsening the crisis.