Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: December 23rd, 2025
12 snips
Dec 23, 2025 Vincent Reinhart, a chief economist known for his insights on monetary policy, delves into the surprising GDP surge and its implications for the Fed. Dan Skelly of Morgan Stanley shares a bullish market outlook for 2026, focusing on AI and M&A. Mona Mahajan from Edward Jones highlights the constructive equity rotation driven by inflation expectations, while Peter Supino provides in-depth analysis of the Warner/Paramount bidding war and its potential impacts on the media landscape.
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AI Limits What Rate Cuts Can Fix
- AI-driven productivity can raise output while suppressing hiring, limiting what rate cuts can achieve.
- Reinhart warns monetary policy has limited power against structural labor supply shocks from AI.
Fed Holds 2% As Aspiration, Not Immediate Target
- The Fed treats 2% inflation as a long-run aspiration but will delay achieving it to protect employment.
- Reinhart says the Fed bought insurance and accepted a slower path back to 2% inflation.
Markets Not Pricing Major Fiscal Or Policy Risks
- Despite fiscal and tariff pressures, markets and inflation expectations don't yet price large risks.
- Reinhart cautions bond markets underprice unknown future stresses like rising deficits or policy shifts.