Iran's (buried) Uranium Treasure - with Amit Segal and Fred Kagan

60 snips

Mar 10, 2026

Guest

Fred Kagan

Guest

Amit Segal

Fred Kagan, military historian who leads AEI’s Critical Threats Project, and Amit Segal, Israeli journalist and analyst on Iran, discuss reports of roughly 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium buried in Iran. They talk about why 60% enrichment matters. They outline what it would take for U.S. or Israeli forces to recover it. They examine how the stockpile shapes campaigns against Iran, regional attacks, and risks if the regime changes.

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INSIGHT

Buried 60% Uranium Is A Strategic Prize

Roughly 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium is buried under Isfahan and could be a decisive strategic asset in the war.
Amit Segal explains that 60% enrichment is a short step from weapons-grade, making recovery a powerful bargaining chip for Iran or a trophy for the West.

INSIGHT

Securing Uranium Is Harder Than It Sounds

Securing the uranium is essential but removing it is a major operation requiring air superiority, excavation, and protection against Iranian strikes.
Fred Kagan warns the short-term nuclear weapon risk is limited but the material could enable dirty bombs or be used politically.

ADVICE

Prioritize Securing Site Before Full Extraction

Prioritize securing the site to prevent Iranian recovery before attempting full extraction.
Fred Kagan recommends holding the area against rocket, drone, and missile threats while completing excavation and airlift removal.

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Could a buried stockpile of uranium decide the outcome of the war with Iran?

Dan is joined by Israeli journalist Amit Segal and military historian Fred Kagan to unpack reports that roughly 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% may still be recoverable from a bombed Iranian nuclear site. They discuss why that level of enrichment matters, what it would take for U.S. or Israeli forces to extract the material, and why the race to secure it could shape the next phase of the war. The conversation also explores the broader campaign against the Iranian regime, the possibility of regime change, renewed Hezbollah attacks in northern Israel, and what Iran might look like if the current leadership collapses.

In this episode:

01:50 – Hezbollah’s renewed attacks on northern Israel

04:05 – The broader military campaign against Iran’s regime infrastructure

08:20 – The race to secure Iran’s buried 60% enriched uranium

12:15 – Why 60% enrichment puts Iran close to nuclear weapons capability

16:40 – What it would take for U.S. or Israeli forces to extract the material

23:30 – Netanyahu’s “surprises” and the strategy to destabilize the regime

28:55 – The rise of Mojtaba Khamenei and what it means for the regime

35:10 – Could regime change in Iran trigger a civil war?

Learn more about AEI’s Critical Threats Project.

Learn more about the Institute for the Study of War.

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Credits: Ilan Benatar, Adaam James Levin-Areddy, Brittany Cohen, Ava Weiner, Martin Huergo, Mariangeles Burgos, and Patricio Spadavecchia, Yuval Semo