Reuters Morning Bid A fragile ceasefire
Apr 9, 2026
Markets celebrated a ceasefire but doubts returned as oil flows remain constrained. Stranded crude and chokepoints in the Gulf keep physical fuel markets under stress. Concerns over higher Brent and shipping uncertainty loom if fighting restarts. Rising jet fuel costs are already squeezing airlines and could push travel prices up for consumers.
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Ceasefire Reaction Masked Deep Fragility
- Markets rallied on a U.S.-Iran-Israel ceasefire but leaders immediately contradicted details, making the truce fragile.
- Amanda Cooper notes physical oil and refined products remain stranded in the Gulf, keeping supply risks acute.
Strait Of Hormuz Transit Limits Keep Oil Prices Elevated
- Iran says ships need military approval and will limit transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping flows constrained.
- Peter Devlin cites Goldman Sachs warning Brent could average $115 Q4 if the ceasefire fails and 2m bpd remain offline.
Physical Crude Markets Diverge From Futures
- Physical Atlantic Basin crudes trade near record highs despite futures pullback, with some grades approaching $140 per barrel.
- Amanda Cooper points out refiners are scrambling for oil available for immediate loading, not just future months.